招商证券:国网“十五五”投资规划超预期,总投资预计达4万亿元聚焦新型电力系统
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-20 09:26

Group 1 - The core investment of the State Grid Corporation during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a significant increase of approximately 40% compared to the previous plan [1][5] - The implied annual compound growth rate (CAGR) for achieving this target is about 7%, which is comparable to the growth rate of 7.1% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][5] - The focus of investment is shifting from "stabilizing growth" to "building a new power system," indicating a high level of industry prosperity expected to continue throughout the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][5] Group 2 - The report highlights significant challenges in power consumption, with electricity demand expected to grow rigidly due to new needs from electric vehicles and AI computing [2][8] - The supply side has seen explosive growth in renewable energy installations, with nearly 80% of new photovoltaic and wind power capacity added in the last three years, exceeding the grid's original capacity [2][8] - The construction of external transmission channels (UHV/main grid) and the enhancement of system regulation capabilities (energy storage/distribution network) are viewed as key technical paths to address these challenges [2][8] Group 3 - The overseas power grid is entering a renewal cycle, with equipment averaging 30 to 40 years of service nearing replacement, leading to a "passive acceleration" of investment [3][9] - Chinese leading power equipment companies are demonstrating strong delivery capabilities and competitive advantages in transformers, switches, smart meters, and insulators, benefiting from early overseas market positioning [3][9] - These companies are expected to achieve more prominent development in this global cycle [3][9] Group 4 - The report suggests focusing on domestic companies such as Guodian NARI, Sifang Electric, China XD Electric, and TBEA, among others [6][11] - For overseas layout, companies like Sifang Electric, Igor, and TBEA are highlighted as key players [6][11]