COMEFLY OUTDOOR CO.(SH:603908) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-20 09:32Core Viewpoint - The company Muguo has reported its first annual loss since its listing, with a projected net loss of 22 million to 33 million yuan for 2025, marking a significant decline from a net profit of 83.76 million yuan the previous year, representing a drop of 126.27% to 139.40% [1][25][27] Group 1: Performance Decline - Muguo's performance has been on a downward trend since the peak of the camping economy in 2022, with each quarter in 2025 showing a year-on-year decline in net profit, culminating in a loss of 10.56 million yuan in Q3 [3][7][27] - The company’s revenue growth has significantly slowed, with a mere 1.40% increase in 2023 and a 10.42% decline in 2024, while net profit dropped by 24.05% to 10.7 million yuan in 2023 and by 21.57% in 2024 [7][32][34] - The projected loss for Q4 2025 could reach as high as 58.65 million to 69.65 million yuan, indicating a severe downturn in financial performance [7][32][34] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The initial success of Muguo was driven by the camping boom during the pandemic, with revenues soaring to 1.436 billion yuan in 2022, a 55.52% increase from the previous year [3][28] - However, as the pandemic subsided and tourism resumed, the camping trend waned, leading to a sharp decline in Muguo's sales and profitability [7][32][34] - The company has failed to capitalize on the growing outdoor apparel market, which is projected to reach 150.4 billion yuan in 2024 with a growth rate of 23% [12][36] Group 3: Management and Strategy Issues - Muguo's management has seen significant salary increases despite the company's declining performance, with the chairman's salary rising from 722,700 yuan in 2022 to 5.629 million yuan in 2024 [19][44] - The company has struggled with its transition from an OEM model to a brand-focused strategy, missing opportunities in the outdoor apparel segment while relying heavily on its core camping gear business [39][41] - Employee incentive plans have been undermined by the company's poor performance, leading to the termination of stock option plans that were contingent on achieving specific revenue and profit growth targets [41][43]