大摩：料内地物管板块持续分化 看好华润万象生活(01209)及绿城服务

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that while the profit drag from related parties for mainland property management companies has largely dissipated, challenges such as weakened collections and rising vacancy fees persist, alongside a soft macro environment and subpar service quality, leading to fee pressure [1] Industry Summary - The firm expects industry profits to grow by 3%, 5%, and 7% year-on-year from 2025 to 2027, with revenue growth around 5%, but profit margins are under pressure due to weakened collections [1] - Property management services are anticipated to be the main growth driver in the industry, while value-added services are expected to remain sluggish [1] Stock Selection - The firm recommends high-quality companies with robust asset bases, highlighting China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) which is expected to achieve mid-teens growth driven by mall consumption, with a dividend yield of 4% to 5%, and a target price raised from HKD 46.38 to HKD 48.93, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - Greentown Service (02869) is noted for high earnings visibility and margin expansion, also receiving an "Overweight" rating, with a target price slightly decreased from HKD 5.78 to HKD 5.54 [1] - Country Garden Services (06098) is viewed as a tactical choice, rated "In Line with Market," with a target price increased from HKD 6.07 to HKD 7.04, supported by stable cash flow, improved shareholder returns, and ongoing share buybacks yielding approximately 8% [1]