专访大摩徐然：全面降息弊大于利，2026年中国金融体系将逐步回归正循环

Core Viewpoint - The comprehensive interest rate cut is deemed more harmful than beneficial and should not be viewed as a panacea for stimulating the economy [1][3] Monetary Policy - On January 15, the People's Bank of China announced a policy package with eight measures, focusing on structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as private small and micro enterprises and technological innovation [1] - A structural interest rate cut indicates that a broad monetary policy is unlikely to arrive soon [1][3] Credit Market Dynamics - The current economic pain points are structural imbalances rather than insufficient total demand, and targeted support for key areas is necessary for effective empowerment [3] - By the end of 2025, the social financing scale is projected to reach 442.12 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [8] - The growth of medium- and long-term loans in manufacturing and infrastructure sectors is expected to be 6.6% and 6.9%, respectively, while the service sector (excluding real estate) is projected to grow by 9.4% [8] Financial Asset Yield - The further decline in financial asset yields may lead to various adverse consequences, including reduced risk appetite among banks and lower credit availability [3] - The practice of zero interest rates in other countries has shown that excessively low rates can hinder market competition and become a short-term fix [3] Deposit Trends - In 2025, non-bank financial institutions' deposits increased by 6.41 trillion yuan, a significant rise of 147% compared to the previous year, while household deposits increased by 14.64 trillion yuan, only 3% more than the previous year [9] - The notion of "deposit migration" is deemed inaccurate; the increase in non-bank deposits reflects a diversification in residents' financial asset allocation rather than a reduction in total deposits [9] Future Outlook - By 2026, the financial system is expected to gradually return to a positive cycle, supported by the resolution of historical risks and continuous optimization of credit structure [10] - The banking sector's net interest margin is anticipated to stabilize and rebound in the second half of 2026, contributing to a substantial increase in bank revenues [12] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain stable or slightly improve, providing a favorable backdrop for the development of the financial industry [11]