Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-20 10:27Core Viewpoint - The duty-free sales in Hainan for October-November 2025 reached 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, benefiting from a low base and new policies [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Hainan's duty-free sales in October-November 2025 were approximately 4.8 billion yuan, up 19.8% year-on-year, driven by a low base in 2024 and new duty-free policies [1] - In the first week following the closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, duty-free shopping amounted to about 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.9%, supported by government and operator subsidies [1] - The expected year-on-year growth rate for China Duty Free Group's (CDFG) Hainan business in Q4 is projected to be between 20% and 25% [1] Group 2: Airport and Online Sales - In October-November, the number of inbound and outbound passengers at Shanghai Airport reached 6.54 million, a year-on-year increase of 22%, while Beijing Capital Airport saw 3 million passengers, up 18% year-on-year, indicating potential growth in offline duty-free sales [2] - However, online sales for CDFG's Day Sun brand have significantly declined due to compliance issues and a shift in business model from general trade to cross-border e-commerce, leading to higher product pricing [2] - The online business's share is expected to decrease substantially due to these challenges [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - CDFG's Q4 revenue is expected to be 14.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding non-recurring gains and losses) of 900 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 155% [2] - The gross margin for Q4 is anticipated to decline by 2 percentage points, influenced by changes in product mix and the impact of low-margin online sales [2] - For 2025 and 2026, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.85 billion yuan and 4.99 billion yuan, respectively, with a strong recommendation for investment [3]