兴证策略：到看业绩的时间了 关注哪些方向？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share annual report performance forecast disclosure rate is currently at 7.98%, with a peak expected in late January, where the final disclosure rate may reach around 55% [1][13]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - As of January 19, 447 A-share listed companies have released annual report performance forecasts, with 144 companies expecting a net profit growth rate exceeding 50%, primarily in sectors such as computing power, new energy, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and computers [4][17]. - The sectors with the highest net profit growth forecasts include computing power (semiconductors, communication equipment), new energy (batteries, photovoltaics, grid equipment), chemicals, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals (industrial metals, new metal materials, minor metals), and computers [4][17]. Group 2: Earnings Surprises - Current earnings surprises are mainly concentrated in the electronics, new energy, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals industries, with companies whose median net profit forecasts exceed consensus expectations by more than 10% classified as "earnings surprises" [8][19]. - The sectors showing significant earnings surprises include electronics (semiconductors, consumer electronics), new energy (batteries, grid equipment), chemicals (agricultural chemicals), and pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs, medical devices) [8][19]. Group 3: Profit Forecast Adjustments - Since November of the previous year, industries with significant upward adjustments in profit forecasts include technology (especially in high-demand upstream computing hardware and downstream applications like consumer electronics and software), advanced manufacturing (new energy, military equipment, automotive), and cyclical sectors (building materials, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel) [10][21]. - The financial sector, including insurance, brokerage, and rural commercial banks, has also seen adjustments in profit forecasts [10][21].