Can Carnival Stock Reach $40 in 2026?

Core Viewpoint - Carnival Corp. has shown significant recovery and growth in the cruise industry, with a share price increase of 180% over the past 36 months, indicating strong financial performance and investor confidence [1][3]. Financial Performance - In fiscal 2021, Carnival experienced a 66% year-over-year revenue decrease and a net loss of $9.5 billion, but has since rebounded with record revenue of $26.6 billion and adjusted net income of $3.1 billion in the last fiscal year ending November 30, 2025 [5]. - The company has improved its balance sheet, reducing its debt burden from a peak of $36.6 billion to $26.6 billion, which is 69% of its total market cap [9][10]. Market Position and Valuation - Carnival shares are currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.7, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 25.7, suggesting potential for a 37% upside if the valuation gap narrows [4]. - The stock is currently priced around $29, with a target of $40 by 2026 requiring a 38% increase [2][3]. Demand and Consumer Trends - Carnival ended the fourth quarter with $7.2 billion in customer deposits, indicating strong demand and visibility into future trends [7]. - The company is expanding its offerings, including new private destinations like Celebration Key in Grand Bahama and Ensenada Bay Village in Mexico, enhancing customer experience [8]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment appears favorable for travel spending, with the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates and implementing quantitative easing, which could support Carnival's stock performance [12].