油价今年首次上调！

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in domestic fuel prices in China is driven by rising international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, with expectations of further price adjustments in the future [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of January 20, 2026, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 85 yuan per ton, translating to a rise of 0.06 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.07 yuan per liter for both 95-octane gasoline and 0 diesel [1]. - Following the price adjustment, the retail price of diesel in most regions has risen from 6.4 yuan per liter to 6.6 yuan per liter, while 92-octane gasoline has increased from 6.7 yuan per liter to 6.8 yuan per liter [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is facing a significant risk of oversupply in 2026, with OPEC+ and other oil-producing countries potentially increasing production [3]. - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production plan from November 2025, with an increase of approximately 2.9 million barrels per day expected from April to December 2025, which is nearly 3% of global oil demand [3]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a potential oversupply of 3.84 million barrels per day in 2026, driven by weak global oil demand [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict a high probability of further price increases in the next round of fuel price adjustments, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand [4]. - The oil market is expected to experience a volatile but generally upward trend in the short term, while long-term price movements will be anchored by fundamental supply and demand dynamics [4].