关键技术突破叠加存储涨价大周期，国产半导体设备景气度确认

Core Viewpoint - The domestic semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing significant boosts in confidence due to two recent catalysts: the successful development of a high-energy hydrogen ion implanter and strong financial signals from industry leaders indicating expansion. Group 1: Domestic Semiconductor Equipment Development - The China National Nuclear Corporation announced the successful launch of the first domestically developed series-type high-energy hydrogen ion implanter (POWER-750H), achieving international advanced levels in core indicators, marking a breakthrough in key processes of power semiconductor manufacturing [1] - Ion implanters are considered one of the "four core equipment" essential for chip manufacturing, alongside photolithography machines, etching machines, and thin-film deposition equipment, highlighting their critical role in semiconductor production [1] - Historically, China has relied entirely on imports for high-energy hydrogen ion implanters, which has been a bottleneck for upgrading key technology industries due to high technical barriers [1] - According to the China Semiconductor Industry Association, China's equipment localization may have entered a rapid growth phase, indicating a significant shift in the domestic semiconductor landscape [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Outlook - TSMC, the world's largest chip foundry, reported a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q4 2025, with a gross margin of 62%, significantly exceeding expectations; capital expenditures are projected to reach up to $56 billion in 2026 [2] - The surge in AI demand is directly impacting the supply-demand balance for advanced processes, with storage chip prices expected to rise by up to 1800% in 2025 and by 60% in Q1 2026 [2] - The combination of AI-driven price increases in storage and advancements in process technology is likely to create a "golden period" for the domestic semiconductor equipment and materials industry, characterized by simultaneous expansion and technological breakthroughs [2] Group 3: Index Performance - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) tracks the CSI index, with over 90% coverage of the upstream and midstream semiconductor industry, including key players like Zhongwei Company and SMIC, indicating a strong concentration in leading firms [2] - The CSI semiconductor index has shown higher elasticity compared to similar indices, achieving a doubling in growth since 2025 and a 308% increase since 2020, outperforming the Sci-Tech Innovation Board chip index [3] - From the last semiconductor cycle in 2018 to the present, the CSI semiconductor index has recorded a maximum increase of over 690%, leading among comparable indices [3] Group 4: Performance Metrics - The following table summarizes the performance metrics of various semiconductor indices: | Securities Code | Securities Name | Growth Rate (2025 to Present) | Growth Rate (2020 to Present) | Maximum Increase (Since 2018) | Maximum Drawdown (Since 2018) | |------------------|------------------|-------------------------------|-------------------------------|-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 931865. CSI | CSI Semiconductor | 100.01% | 308.03% | 690.33% | 59.89% | | 931743. CSI | Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | 96.29% | 200.21% | 567.12% | 61.71% | | 980017. SZ | National Chip | 61.87% | 144.55% | 479.68% | 61.73% | | 990001. CSI | China Semiconductor Chip | 66.27% | 139.34% | 397.63% | 61.82% | | H30184. CSI | Semiconductor | 69.49% | 138.35% | 397.83% | 62.54% | | H30007. CSI | Chip Industry | 66.06% | 159.76% | 544.10% | 60.78% | | 000685. SH | Sci-Tech Innovation Chip | 87.39% | 203.57% | 243.12% | 56.81% | [4]