Netflix strengthens its Warner Bros. bid as Paramount's David Ellison tries to wreck its deal

Core Viewpoint - Netflix is increasing its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) by converting part of its stock offer into an all-cash proposal to counter Paramount's bid, aiming for a quicker shareholder vote and more financial certainty [1][2]. Group 1: Netflix's Strategy - Netflix's revised offer remains at $27.75 per share, but the conversion of $4.50 per share from stock to cash eliminates uncertainty for WBD shareholders [2]. - The company's shares have decreased by 13% since the announcement of the Warner Bros. deal and have fallen 28% since late October [2]. Group 2: Paramount's Position - Paramount's all-cash offer stands at $30 per share for all of WBD, which it claims is superior to Netflix's bid for key assets like the studio and HBO [3][7]. - Paramount has made eight unsuccessful bids for WBD and is currently suing the company while seeking board positions [3]. Group 3: Valuation of WBD's Assets - A significant factor in the bidding war is the perceived value of WBD's cable networks, which Paramount aims to acquire, while Netflix does not [7]. - If WBD's cable channels are valued at less than $2.25 per share (or $5.9 billion), Paramount's offer may seem more attractive initially [8]. - WBD has indicated that it would need to deduct $1.79 per share from Paramount's bid to account for costs associated with changing direction, including a $2.8 billion breakup fee to Netflix [8]. Group 4: Market Analysts' Perspectives - Most media analysts have a more optimistic valuation of WBD's cable business, estimating its channels to be worth between low single digits and $3.51 per share [10]. - Even a conservative estimate based on the valuation of a new cable company suggests WBD's networks could be valued at $1.20 per share [10]. Group 5: Future Implications - Unless WBD shareholders oppose its board, Paramount may feel pressured to increase its bid to remain competitive [11].