TotalEnergies Expects Strong Q4 Refining to Offset Lower Oil Prices

Core Viewpoint - TotalEnergies anticipates that increased oil and gas production, along with stronger refining margins, will mitigate the impact of a more than $10 per barrel decline in oil prices in the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Production and Financial Performance - TotalEnergies expects a 5% year-on-year increase in oil and gas production for Q4, leading to nearly 4% growth for the full year, surpassing the guidance of over 3% [3] - Despite a year-on-year decline of over $10 per barrel in oil prices, cash flow from business segments is projected to remain stable compared to last year, supported by upstream production growth and improved downstream results [2] Group 2: Refining and Chemicals - The company forecasts a significant increase in Refining & Chemicals earnings and cash flow, driven by strong operational performance and a more than 30% increase in margins [4] - The European refining margin for TotalEnergies' assets surged by 231% year-on-year to $85.7 per ton in Q4 [4] Group 3: Industry Context - Other firms in the industry, such as Exxon, Shell, and BP, have indicated lower earnings for Q4 compared to Q3 due to weak liquids prices and reduced margins in chemicals [5][6]