欧美央行立场分化 汇价维持整理

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the euro against the dollar is experiencing limited volatility and a neutral to bearish trend, with short-term momentum significantly weakened [1] - The euro had previously rebounded strongly after a significant pullback, breaking through a key psychological level, but showed signs of weakness as it briefly dipped below a core long-term moving average [1] - The recent decline of the dollar has been a crucial factor in the euro's rebound, driven by market assessments of geopolitical tensions and a risk-off sentiment towards the dollar [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance provides potential support for the dollar, with Chairman Powell signaling no urgent need for continued easing despite a rate cut in December [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its interest rates and shifted its policy stance towards maintaining the current position, ruling out the possibility of a rate cut in the near term [2] - Recent positive economic data from the Eurozone has stabilized market sentiment, with growth slightly exceeding expectations and domestic demand effectively countering manufacturing weaknesses [2][3] Group 3 - Inflation is expected to decline below target in the next two years due to easing energy price pressures, but service sector inflation may remain sticky due to lagging wage growth [3] - The ECB's policy will be based on data-driven assessments, with the current market pricing reflecting only a slight possibility of rate cuts this year [3] - The technical outlook for the euro against the dollar indicates that the core long-term moving average remains a critical support level, with potential for deeper corrections if breached [3]