Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-20 13:32Core Insights - The report from Goldman Sachs highlights a significant investment in China's power grid, with a target of 4 trillion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), marking a 40% increase from the previous plan's 2.8 trillion RMB [3][4][19] - The investment shift focuses on accommodating renewable energy and digital economy needs, indicating a structural transformation in the power grid's role from merely transmitting electricity to efficiently integrating variable renewable energy sources [3][4][18] Investment Scale and Growth Logic - The unprecedented investment base supports a robust growth outlook for the power grid sector, with an average annual investment exceeding 800 billion RMB [4][19] - The growth logic is evolving, with a clear bifurcation in investment phases: high-voltage direct current (UHV) investments are expected to grow by 24% in 2026, while investments will shift towards smart grid infrastructure from 2028 to 2030 [7][22] Structural Changes in Investment - A significant structural change is underway, with distribution network investments projected to surpass transmission investments, increasing from 57% to 59% of total investments from 2026 to 2030 [8][23] - This shift reflects a fundamental redefinition of the grid's functionality, necessitating upgrades to accommodate distributed energy resources, electric vehicle charging stations, and virtual power plants [10][25] Necessity for Smart Investments - By 2030, renewable energy is expected to account for 30% of total electricity generation, introducing challenges for grid stability that require heightened levels of smart investments [11][26] - Investment growth may temporarily slow in 2027-2028 due to project cycles, but is anticipated to accelerate again in 2029-2030 to address increasing balance challenges [11][26] Market Dynamics and Leading Companies - The market is increasingly favoring leading companies in the sector, with major players like Suyuan Electric, Pinggao Electric, and TBEA capturing significant market shares in core equipment categories [12][29] - This "stronger getting stronger" dynamic suggests that as overall demand increases, companies with technological, brand, and delivery advantages will gain more substantial market shares and performance elasticity [12][29] Future System Upgrades - The 4 trillion RMB investment blueprint is not merely about infrastructure expansion; it represents a comprehensive upgrade of the energy system's underlying architecture, aiming to create a stronger, smarter, and more flexible power system [15][30] - The immediate benefits from UHV and backbone network upgrades are clear, while the long-term potential from grid digitalization and distribution network intelligence presents a valuable opportunity for future growth [15][30]