ZFX 山海证券:比特币算力连跌 60 日

Core Viewpoint - The Bitcoin network's hash rate has been in a downward trend, decreasing by 15% from its peak in October 2025, indicating significant deterioration in the profitability of the cryptocurrency mining industry, which may set the stage for a price rebound in the future [1][3]. Industry Dynamics - The decline in hash rate has triggered a chain reaction, with the Glassnode hash ribbon indicator showing an inversion since November 29, indicating that miners are forced to sell Bitcoin to maintain operations, creating ongoing selling pressure in the market [2][5]. - Bitcoin mining difficulty is set to decrease by 4% on January 22, marking the seventh negative adjustment in the past eight cycles, reflecting the network's passive adaptation to the declining hash rate [2][5]. - Companies like Riot Platforms are selling Bitcoin to invest in capital-intensive AI and high-performance computing sectors, which, while aligning with long-term industry trends, has amplified short-term supply pressure in the crypto market [2][5]. - The current hash rate decline is narrowing, with the level of 977 EH/s approaching the cost line for some efficient miners, limiting the potential for further equipment shutdowns [2][5]. Historical Context - Historical patterns suggest that prolonged pressure on miners often precedes price rebounds, as the exit of inefficient miners can optimize market supply structure, leading to renewed upward momentum for Bitcoin once selling pressure is exhausted [3][6]. - The hash ribbon indicator suggests that when the 30-day moving average of hash rate crosses above the 60-day average, it signals the end of miner capitulation, typically coinciding with price improvements [3][6]. - Current market conditions, including ongoing adjustments in mining difficulty, are expected to enhance the profitability of remaining miners, while the selling pressure from declining hash rates is gradually being released, increasing the likelihood of a price rebound [3][6]. Investment Insights - The market is at a crossroads of short-term pressure and long-term opportunities, with a focus on hash rate indicators as potential signals for positioning [4][7]. - If the hash ribbon indicator shows recovery and hash rate stabilizes, it could be seen as a positive signal for investment [4][7]. - The end of the miner capitulation phase often marks the confirmation of market bottoms, suggesting that Bitcoin may escape short-term volatility and enter a more sustainable upward trend as the mining ecosystem self-corrects [4][7].