FXGT:达沃斯风云与比特币9.3万关口博弈

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin (BTC) price stabilized above $9,300 after a sell-off, while gold reached a new high of over $4,700 per ounce, indicating strong demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin experienced a decline of approximately 2% despite recovering some losses, with Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins showing more significant drops [2][5]. - Market liquidity issues have intensified asset price volatility, with the crypto market displaying "asymmetric downside risk," where negative news impacts prices more severely than positive news [2][5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - On-chain data suggests a reduction in selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH), decreasing from over 100,000 BTC per week at peak to about 12,800 BTC currently, indicating that committed bulls are not panicking [3][5]. - The overall market sentiment remains fragile, influenced by events such as the "Trump tariff threat," which adds speculative elements to short-term market movements [2][5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - There is a significant supply resistance zone for Bitcoin between $9,300 and $11,000, which may hinder further price rebounds [3][5]. - Analysts agree that Bitcoin may only initiate a more sustained and robust upward trend when the market structure shifts to a scenario where mature supply exceeds long-term holder expenditures [3][5].