Why $5,000/oz is on horizon as gold crosses record $4,700?

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are reaching record highs, with experts predicting a potential rise to $5,000 per ounce due to escalating geopolitical tensions and market dynamics [1][6]. Price Surge and Market Dynamics - Gold has surged by 70% since the beginning of Trump's second term, with a 9.6% increase in the first 20 days of 2026 [3]. - Silver also reached a record high of $95.770 per ounce, driven by similar market conditions [1][11]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a flight to safety amid geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of easier monetary policy [4][12]. Safe Haven Demand - The demand for gold as a safe haven is increasing, particularly in light of instability in stock-bond correlations and global policy uncertainty [9]. - Analysts suggest that gold's role as a low-volatility hedge is becoming increasingly important in the current market environment [9]. Future Projections - Aakash Doshi from State Street Investment Management believes that the likelihood of gold reaching $5,000 per ounce in 2026 is between 30% to 40% [6][7]. - The simultaneous record highs in both gold and US stocks strengthen gold's position as a portfolio hedge [7]. Geopolitical Influences - The geopolitical landscape, including threats of trade wars and tensions with NATO allies, is contributing to market participants' lack of confidence in the US dollar, prompting a shift towards gold and silver [4][12]. - The current environment is characterized by heightened geopolitical and policy uncertainty, further driving demand for these precious metals [9][12].