Target vs. Macy's: Which Retail Stock Offers More Upside Now?

Core Insights - Target Corporation (TGT) and Macy's, Inc. (M) are both undergoing transformations in a changing consumer landscape, with Target having a market cap of approximately $51 billion and Macy's at around $6 billion [1][2] Group 1: Target Corporation (TGT) - Target is focusing on design-led merchandising and trend-forward owned brands to enhance its style-and-value positioning [4] - The company is experiencing digital momentum, with services like same-day delivery and pickup contributing to growth [4] - Capital expenditures are projected to increase by 25% to $5 billion in fiscal 2026 to support store remodels and upgraded fulfillment [5] - Advanced analytics are being utilized to improve demand forecasting and inventory management, resulting in a 150 basis point improvement in on-shelf availability year-over-year [6] - Despite operational improvements, Target faces challenges with muted demand recovery and declining sales projections for the fiscal fourth quarter [7] Group 2: Macy's, Inc. (M) - Macy's is advancing its omni-channel transformation through the Bold New Chapter initiative, enhancing both in-store and digital shopping experiences [8] - The company is benefiting from luxury segments, particularly through Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury, which contribute to higher-margin growth [9][10] - Operational modernization, including a new automated distribution center, is enhancing efficiency and delivery capabilities [12] - Macy's has reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 sales guidance, projecting net sales between $21.48 billion and $21.63 billion, with adjusted EPS expected to be between $2.00 and $2.20 [13] - The company is recognized for its strong cash generation and ongoing share repurchases, providing financial flexibility for its long-term strategy [13] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Over the past year, Target's stock has decreased by 16.7%, while Macy's stock has increased by 55.4% [17] - Target's forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple is 0.47, below its three-year median of 0.56, whereas Macy's P/S multiple is 0.27, above its median of 0.20 [19] - Macy's is viewed as a stronger investment candidate due to its disciplined store optimization and improving earnings visibility, while Target is facing near-term earnings pressure [20][21]