Box Down 19% in a Year: Can a Strong Portfolio Help the Stock Recover?

Core Insights - Box (BOX) shares have declined 18.9% over the past 12 months, underperforming the Zacks Internet Software industry's decline of 2.3% and the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 24.7% [1] - The decline is attributed to a challenging macroeconomic environment and increased expenses related to cloud infrastructure, sales and marketing, and administration, negatively impacting profitability [1] Financial Performance - For the nine-month period ending October 31, 2025, Box's gross margin remained flat year over year at 81.2% [2] - Operating expenses rose by 9.7% year over year to $635.6 million, driven by a 11.2% increase in research and development, a 7.4% increase in sales and marketing, and a 13% rise in general and administrative expenses [2] - Operating margin contracted by 50 basis points year over year, with expectations of a gross margin of 81% for fiscal 2026, indicating a 20-bps contraction from fiscal 2025 [2] Customer and Partner Dynamics - Box has a strong portfolio and a rich partner base, including OpenAI, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Google, Anthropic, and IBM, which helps maintain its clientele [3] - The company has over 2,000 customers paying at least $100K annually, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase [3] - The net retention rate for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 was 104%, exceeding management's expectation of 103% [3] Product Innovations - Box is expected to benefit from strong customer demand for Box AI and the growing adoption of its Enterprise Advanced suite [4] - The Box AI platform connects AI models and agents, ensuring data governance and compliance while preventing content sprawl and security risks [4] - Box Extract, a new data extraction solution powered by generative AI, allows enterprises to automate workflows and make quicker decisions using analytical information [5] Strategic Partnerships - Box has entered a multi-year strategic collaboration agreement with AWS to enhance AI capabilities for customers [6] - The partnership focuses on creating new Box AI agents using AWS's advanced AI services [6] - Box has also partnered with Tata Consultancy Services to deliver AI-powered content management solutions [6] Revenue and Earnings Guidance - Box expects fourth-quarter revenues to be approximately $304 million, indicating a 9% year-over-year growth [7] - Fiscal 2026 revenue is projected to be around $1.175 billion, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth [10] - Non-GAAP earnings for fiscal 2026 are expected to be $1.28 per share, indicating a decrease of 25.2% from fiscal 2025 [11]