格陵兰风起云涌、日本债惨遭抛售 华尔街的宁静开局不堪一击

Market Overview - The recent weeks have seen an unusual downturn in Wall Street, primarily due to President Trump's aggressive stance on international relations, particularly regarding Greenland, which has created chaos among US and European allies [2][9] - Following the market opening on Tuesday, there was a strong return of "sell America" trades, leading to declines in US Treasury bonds and the dollar, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices dropping by 2%, erasing all gains made this year [2][9] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, reached its highest level since November of the previous year, while gold prices surged to over $4,700 per ounce, setting a new record [2][9] Investor Sentiment - Investors had previously shown indifference to Trump's actions, but recent market fluctuations indicate a shift in sentiment, with growing anxiety over potential worst-case scenarios such as NATO disintegration and a full-blown trade war [2][9] - The baseline scenario suggests that severity will ultimately be controlled, as investors are betting on some form of compromise, although if the situation escalates, the impact could be severe and long-lasting, particularly for the dollar [3][10] Bond Market Dynamics - Over the past month, volatility in US bonds, stocks, and the dollar had dropped to the lowest levels since at least 1990, as traders learned to disregard Trump's rhetoric, betting that his most severe threats would not materialize [5][12] - The sell-off in the market was initially triggered by domestic issues in Japan, where concerns over the Prime Minister's tax cuts and increased spending led to a rise of over 25 basis points in Japan's 30-year bond yield, affecting global bond yields [5][12] - The US Treasury market experienced significant pressure, with the yield on 30-year bonds rising by 7 basis points to 4.9%, impacting Trump's goal of lowering interest rates [5][13] Institutional Responses - The Danish pension fund AkademikerPension announced plans to exit its US Treasury positions by the end of the month, citing significant credit risks created by the Trump administration [6][14] - Despite expectations of a diplomatic resolution to the Greenland issue, the chaotic negotiation style of the White House has dampened market confidence [6][14] Sector Implications - The escalating geopolitical tensions are expected to benefit sectors such as defense, finance, and gold, with investment portfolios increasingly focused on these areas [7][15] - Market participants are wary of how far Trump might escalate new threats, although historically, he has often resorted to negotiations rather than imposing extreme tariffs [7][16]