“特朗普关税”引发美债抛售潮 10年期美债收益率创五个月新高

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a significant sell-off due to President Trump's announcement of a 10% tariff on imports from eight European countries, raising concerns about trade and geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On January 20, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8.1 basis points, reaching a high of 4.31% before closing at 4.29%, marking a five-month high [1][3]. - The 30-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.95% and closed at 4.92%, the highest in over four months, recording the largest single-day drop since July 11 [1][3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are expressing concerns about multiple uncertainties involving the U.S., Europe, and Japan, fearing a continuation of the trend of "selling U.S. assets," which could lead to a chain reaction similar to the 2022 UK bond crisis [1][3]. - AkademikerPension, a Danish pension fund, plans to exit the U.S. Treasury market by the end of the month, with its CIO stating that U.S. credit is not ideal and that government finances are unsustainable in the long term [1][3]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Ipek Ozkardeskaya from Swissquote noted that the rise in the 10-year yield above 4.25% is partly due to rumors that Europe may "weaponize" its U.S. assets in response to Trump's aggressive trade stance, estimating that Europe holds about $10 trillion in U.S. assets, including $6 trillion in U.S. stocks [2][4]. - Tom Nakamura from AGF Investments highlighted two catalysts for the current volatility: Trump's controversial pursuit of Greenland from Denmark, which has intensified growth concerns and increased expectations for policy easing, and the critical role of Japan, where market attention is focused on whether Prime Minister Kishida can implement large-scale stimulus [2][4].