中信证券：可选消费有所回暖 服务零售成为拉动消费抓手

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that China's retail sales in December 2025 are projected to reach 45,136 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while retail sales of above-limit goods are expected to be 18,084 billion yuan, showing a decline of 2.0% [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Excluding automobiles and petroleum, the retail sales growth rate for above-limit goods is expected to be +1.4% [1] - The decline in automobile sales is attributed to a high base effect and the reduction of subsidies, leading to a more pronounced drop [1] - The food and daily necessities sectors are performing steadily, with the growth rate for daily necessities turning positive [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - There is a notable recovery in optional consumption, although the growth rate for national supplementary categories has decreased due to base effects [1] - December's retail sales figures are weaker than expected, with overall commodity sales remaining flat, but there are signs of recovery in optional consumption [1] - Service retail is becoming a key driver for consumption [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Given the current weak macroeconomic environment, the self-recovery of consumer sentiment is expected to take time, and short-term consumption opportunities may hinge on potential fiscal stimulus policies [1] - For 2026, the focus should be on opportunities driven by wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization [1] - Long-term investment strategies should emphasize the changes in consumer structure [1]