Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-21 01:25Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fell below 100,000 yuan, reaching a low of 99,210 yuan, while London copper retreated to around 12,785 USD [4][17]. - Macro sentiment is neutral to bearish, influenced by geopolitical tensions and fiscal concerns, leading to downward pressure on copper prices [5][18]. - LME copper inventory increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, while LME copper warrants decreased by 4,462 tons to 148,000 tons [5][18]. - Mantoverde is operating normally but is only producing at 75% capacity, with attention on strike adjustments [5][18]. - Short-term copper prices are expected to remain under pressure, with a reference trading range of 98,500 to 100,500 yuan per ton for the main Shanghai copper futures [5][18]. Group 2: Aluminum Market - Overnight alumina futures showed weak fluctuations, with spot prices stabilizing after a decline [19]. - Concerns over rising shipping costs before the Spring Festival have led traders to be less willing to sell at significant discounts [19]. - Some production companies in Guizhou and Guangxi are beginning maintenance and short-term shutdowns, which may scale up before the holiday [19]. - The registered amount of alumina warrants decreased significantly by over 70,000 tons to 116,000 tons, with physical warrants expected to flow to terminal aluminum plants [19]. - The 05 contract for alumina is expected to trade between 2,500 and 2,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold short positions [20]. Group 3: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed weak fluctuations overnight, with macroeconomic factors and escalating trade tensions contributing to bearish sentiment [22]. - The supply side is affected by a slowdown in TC declines, while the demand side remains weak, particularly in the black metal sector [22]. - The current trading range for the main zinc contract is expected to be between 23,800 and 24,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to remain cautious [22]. Group 4: Lead Market - Lead prices showed weak fluctuations overnight, with supply pressures from both primary and secondary sources [23]. - The overall market sentiment is weak, with downstream purchasing intentions declining as the traditional off-season approaches [23]. - The expected trading range for the main lead contract is between 16,800 and 17,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation for range trading [23]. Group 5: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals experienced a broad upward trend, with gold and silver breaking previous highs due to increased safe-haven buying amid geopolitical tensions [25]. - The European Parliament's suspension of trade agreement approvals and Trump's comments on potential military actions have heightened geopolitical risks, boosting demand for precious metals [25]. - The trading ranges for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are set at 1,040-1,100 yuan per gram, 22,000-24,000 yuan per kilogram, 600-660 yuan per gram, and 480-530 yuan per gram, respectively [25].