华泰期货：需求持续偏弱 铜价跌破十万关口

Market Overview - The main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 101,020 CNY/ton and closed at 101,230 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05% from the previous trading day [14] - The night session saw the contract open at 101,020 CNY/ton and close at 99,930 CNY/ton, marking a decrease of 1.29% from the afternoon close [14] Spot Market - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot price was quoted at a discount of 280 to 20 CNY/ton against the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 150 CNY, down 30 CNY from the previous day [15] - The spot price range was between 100,270 and 101,180 CNY/ton, with the main copper futures initially rising before falling back to close at 101,000 CNY [15] - The current market is characterized by a discount structure due to high copper prices and limited downstream purchasing, with logistics remaining generally smooth despite potential impacts from snowfall in the north [15] Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements and price limits for various futures contracts effective January 22, 2026, including an 8% price limit for copper futures and a 10% margin for general positions [16][5] Mining Sector - Peru's copper production in November 2025 decreased by 11.2% year-on-year to 216,152 tons, while cumulative production from January to November 2025 increased by 1.6% to 2.5 million tons [17] - The long-term growth outlook for Peru's copper production remains weak due to a lack of new projects and declining ore grades, with expectations for only a slight increase to around 2.8 million tons in 2026 [17] Import and Recycling - In December 2025, China's imports of scrap copper totaled 238,976.87 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 14.83% and a year-on-year increase of 9.90% [17] - Japan was the largest source of scrap copper imports, while Thailand also showed significant growth in exports to China [17] Consumption Trends - Last week, copper prices remained stable with limited demand from downstream markets, as overall orders were lackluster, leading to a focus on just-in-time purchasing by downstream enterprises [18] - The LME warehouse stocks decreased by 3,850 tons to 156,300 tons, while SHFE stocks fell by 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons [18] Price Strategy - The current outlook for copper prices is neutral, with expectations of a trading range between 99,500 CNY/ton and 110,000 CNY/ton due to high prices and weak downstream demand [19]