华泰期货：工业硅震荡下行，多晶硅偏强上涨

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are experiencing fluctuations in prices due to supply and demand dynamics, with potential impacts from recent policy changes and production adjustments [2][5][12][16]. Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, industrial silicon futures prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract 2605 opening at 8815 CNY/ton and closing at 8745 CNY/ton, a decrease of 35 CNY/ton or 0.4% from the previous day [2]. - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was reported at 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [2]. - Current prices for industrial silicon in various regions are stable, with prices for 553 silicon in East China ranging from 9200 to 9300 CNY/ton and 421 silicon between 9500 and 9800 CNY/ton [2][12]. Supply Side Dynamics - A major factory in Xinjiang has announced production cuts, which are expected to significantly reduce output in January, potentially benefiting industrial silicon prices [12]. - The overall supply side is expected to tighten, leading to a shift from inventory accumulation to depletion if production cuts are effective [12]. Demand Side Dynamics - The demand for industrial silicon is currently limited due to reduced production in polysilicon and ongoing self-regulation in the organic silicon sector [12]. - The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for the photovoltaic sector may create upward demand expectations for industrial silicon [12]. Price Outlook - Industrial silicon prices are anticipated to remain within a fluctuating range, supported by rising coal prices and the photovoltaic industry chain [13]. - The upward price potential will depend on the recovery of downstream demand and the pace of inventory depletion, while downward pressure is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [13]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, polysilicon futures prices increased, with the main contract 2605 opening at 50650 CNY/ton and closing at 50700 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.91% increase from the previous trading day [5]. - Polysilicon inventory has increased to 32.10 thousand tons, a 6.29% rise, while weekly production decreased by 9.66% to 21500 tons [5][14]. Price Stability and Market Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend, influenced by the recent cancellation of export tax rebates, which may stimulate short-term demand but could compromise long-term demand sustainability [16]. - Short-term strategies suggest a focus on new pricing for silicon wafers and production plans for January, while long-term strategies should monitor demand recovery and inventory depletion [16].