光大期货有色金属类日报1.21

Copper - Overnight copper prices showed a downward trend, with domestic refined copper imports continuing to incur losses [3][12] - Macro factors include significant selling of long-term Japanese government bonds due to pre-election expectations and expansionary fiscal narratives, leading to market tension [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons [3][12] - Domestic copper consumption is entering a low season, with inventory accumulation stronger than in the past two years, indicating a need for adjustment [3][12] - Despite the current market conditions, there is still support from funds, making a significant price drop unlikely, with attention on the LME support level of $12,000 per ounce [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.12% to $17,760 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.68% to 140,110 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 972 tons to 284,736 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell by 320 tons to 41,478 tons [4][13] - Indonesia plans to adjust nickel quotas based on industry demand to support local mineral prices, although specific quota levels for 2026 were not disclosed [4][13] - Primary nickel production increased significantly by 18.5% to 37,200 tons, with hedging demand potentially exerting pressure on prices [4][5][13] - Short-term nickel prices may be supported by Indonesian policies, but high inventory levels pose upward pressure [5][13] Aluminum & Alumina - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,668 yuan per ton, down 0.85% [6][14] - SHFE aluminum prices also decreased, with AL2603 closing at 23,775 yuan per ton, down 1.02% [6][14] - The market is experiencing a high inventory level, and there is a lack of purchasing interest from alumina plants, leading to continued inventory accumulation [6][14] - Domestic downstream inventory is expected to continue accumulating, with a potential for short-term price corrections in aluminum [6][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract settling at 8,745 yuan per ton, down 0.4% [7][15] - Polysilicon prices remained strong, with the main contract at 50,700 yuan per ton, up 0.91% [7][15] - The market is shifting from speculative trading to a focus on fundamentals, with pressures on polysilicon prices due to supply-demand imbalances [7][15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures reached a limit up at 160,500 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 1,500 yuan to 152,500 yuan per ton [8][16] - Weekly production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with various sources of lithium showing production increases [8][16] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate rose by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, indicating a mixed supply-demand situation [8][16] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook unless clear negative feedback from demand emerges [8][16]