光大期货农产品类日报1.21

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans experienced a slight decline, ending a three-day rise, as investor concerns over US-EU tensions overshadowed optimism regarding US soybean biofuel demand and record production expectations from Brazil [3][11] - The USDA reported private exports of 190,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines, while US soybean inspection data showed a decrease in exports to China [3][11] - Brazil's soybean harvest rate is at 2.3%, higher than the same period last year but below the five-year average, with favorable weather conditions in Mato Grosso state contributing to higher yields [3][11] - Domestic protein meal prices increased slightly, with canola meal outperforming soybean meal, while soybean meal inventories declined for the third consecutive week due to low crushing volumes and demand for stocking [3][11] - The market outlook for soybean meal remains bearish due to ample supply and cost support, with a suggested strategy of a double selling approach [3][11] Group 2: Oilseeds - BMD palm oil prices rose due to expectations of reduced production and increased export demand, with shipping data indicating a month-on-month increase in palm oil exports of 8.64%-11.4% for January 1-20 [4][12] - A survey indicated that the average price of crude palm oil in 2026 is expected to be slightly lower than last year, with increased supply from major producing countries and weak biofuel demand exerting downward pressure on prices [4][12] - Malaysia has reduced the palm oil export tax to 9% for February, contributing to a more favorable market environment [4][12] - Domestic palm oil prices increased by over 1%, with soybean oil and canola oil following suit, while overall oilseed inventory pressure has marginally decreased [4][12] - The market is characterized by mixed signals, with both spot and futures prices showing resilience amid seasonal demand [4][12] Group 3: Live Pig - Live pig futures continued to show weakness, with the main contract falling by 1.32% to 11,550 yuan/ton, and open interest continued to decline [6][12] - The average daily price of live pigs in China was reported at 13.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day, with regional prices varying across provinces [6][12] - Increased supply from farmers and low willingness from downstream buyers to purchase at high prices have led to a downward trend in pig prices, although some regions in the south are still attempting to maintain prices [6][12] - Seasonal demand leading up to the Spring Festival may provide some support for pig prices in the near term [6][12] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures experienced slight fluctuations, with the main contract rising by 0.13% to 3,027 yuan/500 kg [7][13] - The national average price for eggs was stable at 3.68 yuan/jin, with regional prices showing little change [7][13] - Trade dynamics are characterized by a majority of traders purchasing based on demand, leading to stable prices in most markets, with some minor adjustments [7][13] - Short-term supply remains relatively ample, and as egg prices continue to rebound, spot prices are stabilizing [7][13] - Long-term recovery in farming profits may hinder effective capacity reduction, suggesting a focus on short-term trading strategies [7][13] Group 5: Corn - Corn futures showed a reduction in open interest, with prices initially declining before recovering, closing with a small upward trend [8][14] - Prices in Northeast China are currently stable, with traders selling based on market conditions, while low-price selling intentions appear limited [8][14] - In the sales regions, corn prices are running strong due to increased costs from snowfall affecting transportation [8][14] - Downstream purchasing remains cautious, with no signs of concentrated stocking in the market [8][14] - The recent performance of the corn market is influenced by surrounding commodities and market sentiment, with the May contract showing a mixed trend [8][14]