合成橡胶：商品情绪回落 且BR产业链库存较高 BR承压下行

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of January 20, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9500 (-50) CNY/ton, and the CIF price for butadiene in China is 1180 (+0) USD/ton. The market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11600 (-100) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -3150 (+0) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 15 (-80) CNY/ton [1]. Production and Operating Rates - In December, China's butadiene production reached 500,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.8%. The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 144,000 tons, up 10.4% month-on-month. The production of semi-steel tires was 58.39 million units, a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The production of all-steel tires was 12.86 million units, down 1.2% month-on-month but up 5.5% year-on-year. As of January 15, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with the butadiene industry operating rate at 69.4%, down 2.7% month-on-month, while the high-styrene butadiene rubber industry operating rate was 79.7%, up 0.7% month-on-month. The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers was 72.5%, up 13.7% month-on-month, and for all-steel tire manufacturers, it was 63%, up 13.5% month-on-month [2]. Inventory Levels - As of January 14, the port inventory of butadiene was 44,600 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons month-on-month. The factory inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber was 26,900 tons, up 550 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 2.09%. The inventory held by traders was 8,040 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons, which is an 18.8% month-on-month rise [3]. Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on January 20, the 5,000-ton/year butadiene unit at Maoming Petrochemical has resumed operation, while the downstream SBS unit remains shut down. The 10,000-ton/year butadiene unit is gradually restarting, with downstream styrene-butadiene rubber units also resuming operations [4]. Market Analysis - On January 20, the rubber sector continued to decline, with the main synthetic rubber contract BR2603 closing at 11,585 CNY/ton, down 1.61% from the previous day's settlement price. Starting from the second half of January, multiple domestic butadiene units are set to restart, but due to expectations of increased exports and decreased imports, net import volumes may shrink, leading to a high port inventory that is expected to decline. The supply side shows that some production enterprises in Shandong are selling butadiene resources to alleviate production losses, but the operating rates of styrene-butadiene rubber units remain high, with overall inventory levels also elevated. On the demand side, tire operating rates are expected to recover with the resumption of maintenance enterprises and an increase in export orders. In terms of substitutes, Thailand is still in the peak production season for natural rubber, and the seasonal accumulation of natural rubber in the Qingdao area puts upward pressure on prices. Overall, while the cost side for BR remains firm, the supply side faces significant inventory pressure, and market sentiment is declining, leading to a short-term correction for BR, although the fundamentals are relatively better than natural rubber, suggesting potential for cross-variety arbitrage [5]. Operational Suggestions - Attention is drawn to the opportunity for expanding the price spread between BR2603 and NR2603. The short-term outlook is characterized by volatility [6].