央行政策成胜负手 日元波动性将持续放大

Group 1 - The global financial market experienced severe shocks due to movements in the sovereign debt market, driven by U.S. President Trump's latest tariff comments and concerns over Japan's fiscal discipline following the announcement of early elections [1] - A clear shift in market logic occurred, moving from traditional "interest rate shock" narratives to "risk-off shock" driven by sovereign credit and policy uncertainties [1] - Key market indicators showed a comprehensive sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, with long-term yields rising sharply, and the yield curve steepening significantly [1] Group 2 - The Japanese government bond (JGB) market faced a "crash-level" sell-off, with the 30-year bond yield surging by 35 basis points and the 40-year yield nearing a 50 basis point increase, indicating a severe reassessment of Japan's fiscal outlook [2] - The auction results for 20-year bonds were weak, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 3.19 from 4.10, reflecting a depletion of market demand [2] - The USD/JPY exchange rate was trading around 157.80, showing slight declines and testing key support levels, with potential for further downward movement if critical support is breached [2] Group 3 - The short-term outlook for USD/JPY is heavily dependent on the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) response, particularly regarding its bond purchasing operations [3] - If the BoJ increases bond purchases to stabilize the market, it may temporarily alleviate selling pressure on JGBs but could also lead to a depreciation of the yen [3] - Conversely, if the BoJ shows tolerance towards rising yields, it may exacerbate the trust crisis in JGBs, prompting capital outflows and potentially strengthening the yen [3]