Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen remains weak, with the USD/JPY fluctuating between 157-159, and several investment banks predict it may fall below 160 by year-end, focusing on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations and the risk of official intervention [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy dynamics are a key factor influencing the yen's performance, with the Bank of Japan recently raising the overnight rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years. The next rate hike is expected to be delayed until September, although some officials suggest a possibility in April [2]. - Barclays predicts two rate hikes in July and December 2026, with a terminal rate potentially reaching 1.25%, which could rise to over 1.5% if the Federal Reserve resumes rate hikes [2]. Capital Flows - Capital outflows are increasing, with Japanese retail investors net buying overseas stocks at near ten-year highs and corporate M&A activities reaching multi-year peaks. This trend, combined with a resurgence in carry trades, is further weakening the yen [2]. Inflation and Fiscal Factors - Japan's inflation rate has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for four consecutive years, increasing the pressure on the bond market. The Prime Minister's plan for early elections could lead to expansionary fiscal policies, potentially exacerbating yen depreciation [3]. Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY is currently in a bullish channel, with a range of 157.5-159.5 after reaching a high of 159.45. Short-term moving averages indicate a slight support for the exchange rate, but the overall trend remains bearish [3]. - Key resistance is identified at the 159.5-160 range, with 160 being a significant psychological level and historical intervention point. A breakout above this level could open up further upside potential towards 162-164 [4]. - Support is found at 157.5, close to the 20-day moving average, with further support at 156.8-157.0. The options market shows a strong bias towards USD bullish positions, indicating prevailing sentiment for yen depreciation [4].
日元市场贬值压力未减
Jin Tou Wang·2026-01-21 02:57