专访宏利投资管理：AI投资将从“赋能者”转向“受益者”，今年高配新兴市场债券

Core Insights - The market is expected to shift from focusing on "AI enablers" to "AI beneficiaries," which are sectors and companies that will benefit from increased productivity and efficiency through AI applications [1][8]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Dynamics - Geopolitical dynamics and the policies of the Trump administration will continue to influence global markets, but this does not necessarily mean asset class returns will be negatively impacted [4][5]. - Despite uncertainties, the market is expected to focus on underlying fundamentals and the responsiveness of global governments to market conditions [4][5]. Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Global monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative, with expectations of further interest rate cuts from central banks, including three additional cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2026 [5][12]. - Fiscal policies are anticipated to support market conditions, with increased government spending, particularly in defense and infrastructure, contributing positively to risk assets [5][12]. Group 3: Commodity Cycles - A potential long-term commodity cycle is beginning, with strong performance expected from precious metals like gold and silver, as well as industrial metals such as copper [5][6]. - Geopolitical changes in natural resources may lead to price increases in oil and other commodities if global economic growth stabilizes [5][6]. Group 4: AI Investment Trends - The AI investment landscape is evolving, with a shift from "AI enablers" to "AI beneficiaries," particularly in sectors like healthcare, which can leverage AI for drug development and diagnostics [8][10]. - The industrial sector is expected to benefit indirectly from AI through infrastructure development and increased defense spending [9][10]. - The financial sector is also seen as a potential beneficiary of AI, with banks applying AI to enhance efficiency and productivity [10]. Group 5: Bond Market Insights - The beginning of 2026 has seen a record high in global bond issuance, with approximately $245 billion raised [11]. - Government and corporate bond issuance is expected to remain strong, with a focus on short- to medium-term assets due to anticipated steepening of yield curves [12][13]. - Emerging market bonds are viewed positively, with expectations of continued demand and attractive yields compared to other global debt instruments [13].