洪灏：美联储独立性的黄昏

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has become the central stage for the constitutional and institutional crisis in the United States, with its role evolving beyond just being the global benchmark interest rate setter to a key player in political and economic dynamics by January 2026 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role and Market Dynamics - The current paradigm shift in the traditional financial system is impacting the market more significantly than past business cycles [1] - The long-term pricing mechanism, which was once based on value during the Volcker era, is now increasingly driven by trading profits [1] - The choice of the next Federal Reserve Chair has evolved into a binary decision between two distinct market operation models, represented by Kevin Walsh and Kevin Hassett [1] Group 2: Candidates and Market Sentiment - Kevin Walsh, representing the "independent hawk" in monetary policy, is viewed as a reformist who questions the Fed's bloated balance sheet, with a market betting probability of 60% for his nomination [2] - In contrast, Kevin Hassett, seen as a "dove," embodies an unrealistic overreach of the Trump administration, advocating for the Fed to act as a partner in government growth initiatives [2] - The market has shifted its preference towards Walsh, indicating a desire for stable and sustainable monetary policy rather than blind monetary stimulus, as Hassett's nomination probability has plummeted to 15% [2] Group 3: Implications of Leadership Changes - Even if Walsh is nominated, the risk of the Federal Reserve becoming a "lame duck" remains, particularly if the Senate Banking Committee is deadlocked on the nomination [2][3] - In such a scenario, current Chair Powell may continue in his role or the Vice Chair could step in, which is not the outcome desired by the Trump administration [3] - The misconception that the Fed operates independently from the U.S. government is challenged, emphasizing that its independence is more about internal government dynamics rather than being autonomous [3]