【财经分析】日债收益率创近27年新高：一场政治豪赌与财政风暴的碰撞

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is facing its most severe test in over two decades, with the 10-year bond yield reaching a high of 2.338%, marking the highest level since February 1999, driven by political maneuvers ahead of the upcoming House of Representatives election on February 8 [1][3]. Group 1: Political Context and Fiscal Policy - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives, leading to a politically unstable environment as the election approaches [3]. - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party proposed a significant reduction in the consumption tax on food and beverages from 8% to 0% within two years, which is estimated to reduce annual fiscal revenue by approximately 5 trillion yen [3]. - The opposition party has suggested even more radical measures, including the permanent elimination of the food consumption tax, raising concerns about the clarity of funding mechanisms [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Debt Levels - Japan's real GDP is projected to decline by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with personal consumption showing only a marginal increase of 0.1% [6]. - The number of corporate bankruptcies in Japan is expected to reach 10,300 in 2025, the highest since 2013, with a significant proportion being small and medium-sized enterprises [6]. - The government's budget proposal for FY2026 amounts to 122.3 trillion yen, with debt repayment costs reaching a record 31.3 trillion yen, leading to a government debt-to-GDP ratio of 240%, the highest among major developed economies [6][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Central Bank Challenges - The bond market has reacted negatively to the government's fiscal expansion, with the 10-year bond yield rising over 0.5% in just three months [8]. - The yen has depreciated significantly against the dollar, prompting intervention from the finance minister to stabilize the currency [8]. - The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma in its monetary policy, having ended negative interest rates in December 2025 but now needing to reassess its approach amid market volatility [8].