【环球财经】2025年12月澳大利亚经济活动领先指数增长率上升 2026年GDP增速预计为2.4%

Core Viewpoint - The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity for Australia shows a slight increase in the six-month annualized growth rate, indicating a continuation of economic recovery into 2026, although the momentum remains weak compared to previous strong growth periods [1][2]. Economic Activity Index - The six-month annualized growth rate of the index rose from a revised 0.2% in November to 0.42% in December 2025 [1]. - The index's growth has accumulated an increase of 0.38 percentage points since mid-2025, moving from 0.04% in June to 0.42% in December [2]. Contributing Factors - The increase in the index is primarily driven by rising commodity prices in Australian dollars and a rebound in residential construction approvals [2]. - The commodity price index rose by 5.4% in the second half of 2025, mainly influenced by increases in gold and copper prices [2]. Economic Forecast - Westpac forecasts a 2.4% growth for the Australian economy in 2026, which is close to the trend level [1]. - The upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting is expected to maintain the current benchmark interest rate, with sensitivity to inflation risks noted [2].