United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) is undergoing a strategic transition to become a fully vertically integrated domestic producer, which is expected to significantly enhance profit margins from 20% to approximately 60% [2][4] Financial Performance - UAMY's share price was $8.29 as of January 16th, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 33.93 and 30.67 respectively [1] - The company's revenue guidance for 2026 has been raised to $125 million, driven by the expansion of the Thompson Falls smelter, which will increase output fivefold [2] Market Sentiment - Wall Street maintains a consensus "Strong Buy" rating for UAMY, with an average price target range of $9.86 to $17, indicating a potential upside of 30% to 120% from current levels [3] - The stock has a short interest of 17.86%, but institutional accumulation suggests that maintaining price levels in the $7–$8 range could lead to a gamma- or short-squeeze scenario, potentially pushing shares above $11 [3] Strategic Positioning - UAMY benefits from a constrained supply of Western Antimony, making it a strategically important domestic player, especially for defense applications where U.S. regulations require non-Chinese sourced antimony [4] - The company operates the only active smelter and refiner in the U.S., providing a significant competitive advantage and reinforcing long-term upside potential [4]