AMRO首席经济学家何东：东盟+3韧性显著，但需对全球金融市场波动保持警惕

Core Insights - The ASEAN+3 region's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been raised to 4.3%, while the 2026 forecast is adjusted down to 4.0%, both up by 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates [1] - The upward revision is attributed to milder-than-expected tariff impacts, resilient technology exports, strong investment in the ASEAN region, and supportive macroeconomic policies [1] - AMRO's Chief Economist highlighted the region's resilience in facing global uncertainties, driven by strong demand for technology and foreign direct investment in emerging sectors [1] Economic Resilience - Internal demand is expected to continue supporting overall growth in the second half of 2025, with stable private consumption due to favorable labor market conditions and low inflation [3] - Investment remains robust, particularly in advanced electronics, electric vehicles, and digital services, driven by strong foreign direct investment commitments [3] - Despite tariff challenges, technology exports are performing well, with semiconductor exports in the ASEAN+3 region expected to grow significantly, reflecting strong demand in AI applications and cloud infrastructure [3] Financial Market Dynamics - Regional stock markets are buoyed by optimism in AI-related sectors, despite concerns over U.S. tariff policies [4] - Currency stability is observed, although some economies face currency depreciation due to expanded fiscal stimulus measures, leading to cautious investor sentiment [5] - Ongoing debates exist regarding potential overvaluation in the stock market, particularly in AI stocks, which could impact future investment and export growth if market corrections occur [5] Risks and Uncertainties - The report identifies aggressive protectionist policies as a high-probability, high-impact short-term risk, with uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies and potential tariff expansions [6] - A significant decline in technology demand is noted as a medium-probability but high-impact risk, which could adversely affect regional exports and investment flows [6] - Despite the potential for major impacts from a downturn in technology demand, the likelihood of a severe market correction is currently considered low, with expectations for sustained growth in the sector [6]