高盛：2026年，人民币汇率将升至6.85

Core Viewpoint - China needs to seek new growth momentum from both foreign trade and domestic economy, focusing on non-US markets and non-real estate growth drivers [4][5][19]. Trade New Momentum - China's exports have successfully diversified away from the US, with the share of imports from the US dropping to 8.8% in 2025. Trade with ASEAN exceeded $1 trillion, with Central Asia surpassing $100 billion, and trade with Africa reaching nearly 2.5 trillion yuan [6][10][21]. - The report indicates that the actual growth rate of resident consumption is expected to decline from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.5% in 2026, necessitating increased government consumption to stabilize growth [6][10][21]. Economic Challenges - The main challenge for China's economy is finding new growth momentum, particularly in light of a weak labor market and declining housing prices, which negatively impact consumer confidence [10][25]. - The report highlights that the savings rate has increased from 31.5% in 2024 to 33.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a potential for further capital reallocation if macroeconomic conditions improve [11][26]. Currency Exchange Rate - The forecast for the RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to rise to 6.85 by the end of 2026 and further to 6.54 by the end of 2027, reflecting a gradual appreciation trend [7][14][29]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated a cautious approach to monetary policy, balancing growth support with financial stability, and is expected to implement limited rate cuts in 2026 [15][30]. Inflation Expectations - Inflation in China is projected to be higher in 2026, with core CPI expected to rise from 0.7% in 2025 to 1.0% in 2026, and overall CPI from 0% to 0.6% [12][27]. - The anticipated increase in inflation may lead to a gradual rise in individual investors' demand for risk assets, with an estimated potential investment of around 2 trillion yuan in the stock market over the next 12 months [12][27].