2025年钢铁出口究竟怎么个事？

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, both direct and indirect steel exports have experienced disturbances, but the overall upward trend remains intact. With new changes in export licenses expected in 2026, a slight decline in steel export volumes at high levels is probable [14][25]. Direct Exports: Volume Increase, Price Decrease - In 2025, China exported 119.02 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The characteristics of "volume increase, price decrease" are evident, with a weak domestic real estate market and significant supply-demand contradictions in the steel market. Raw material prices remain low, allowing steel prices to stay relatively low, with hot-rolled coil export prices being $130/ton lower than the EU and $150/ton lower than the US. Emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Belt and Road countries show strong demand for steel imports due to robust infrastructure investments [15][21]. - The continuous increase in exports has also heightened trade frictions, with anti-dumping measures intensifying from countries like the US, EU, Vietnam, and Mexico. Notably, semi-finished steel products like billets have lower or zero tariffs in many countries, leading to a 300.3% year-on-year surge in billet exports as some companies shift to avoid trade barriers [15][21]. Indirect Exports: Historical High - In 2025, China's total goods trade reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% year-on-year increase, with exports amounting to 26.99 trillion yuan (up 6.1%). The export of electromechanical products, which are major steel-consuming products, accounted for over 70% of export growth, with significant increases in integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships, all exceeding 20% year-on-year [18][19]. - The indirect steel export volume is estimated at approximately 14.73 million tons, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year growth, indicating a strong correlation between electromechanical exports and steel indirect exports [19][21]. Overall Impact of Steel Exports: Alleviating Domestic Market Pressure - The cumulative steel export volume in 2025 is around 26.63 million tons, a 7.94% increase, contributing significantly to the domestic steel market's stability. Direct exports account for 45%, while indirect exports make up 55%. However, the combination of low-priced direct steel exports and indirect exports of finished products has limited global steel mill profit margins, with over 150 new anti-dumping and countervailing investigations initiated against Chinese steel products in 2025 [21][22]. Export License System: Optimizing Steel Export Structure - The steel export license system will be officially implemented on January 1, 2026, covering 300 customs codes for steel products. Despite a record high in steel export volume in 2025, the average price fell by over 10%. The license system aims to eliminate "buying export" practices that distort competition and cause tax revenue loss. This transition marks a strategic shift from "scale expansion" to "value enhancement" in China's steel exports, with short-term costs increasing but long-term goals focused on optimizing structure and enhancing industry profitability [24][25]. 2026 Steel Export Outlook - For 2026, a slight decline in steel export volumes is anticipated, although export prices may rise. The export license system will hinder low-value products while mid-to-high value products are expected to maintain high growth rates due to diversified export distribution and a recovering global economy [25].