油脂有“料”：油菜籽自加拿大进口或增多，菜籽油行情转弱

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's visit to China from January 14 to 17 marked a significant step in improving bilateral trade relations, resulting in the signing of the "China-Canada Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap" [2][8] - The two countries will continue trade discussions on electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, canola, and agricultural products, with Canada offering a quota of 49,000 electric vehicles annually to China [3][9] - China is expected to reduce the comprehensive tariff rate on Canadian canola from 80% to around 15% by March 1, 2024, which will facilitate increased imports of Canadian canola [3][9] Group 2 - Despite tightening profit margins for canola processing, the import volume of Canadian canola is projected to increase due to favorable supply conditions, with an expected import volume of 3.22 million tons by 2026, a 37.94% increase from 2025 [4][9] - The current import tariff on canola is 9%, but the increase to 15% will raise the cost of imported canola by approximately 200 RMB per ton, reducing processing profits to around 800 RMB per ton [4][9] - The domestic market for canola oil is expected to experience a supply surplus in February, leading to a forecasted price drop to an average of 8,580 RMB per ton [6][11]