硅业分会：市场观望态势未改 本周多晶硅供需弱平衡格局渐显

Core Viewpoint - The silicon market is experiencing a stalemate, with stable prices despite slight fluctuations in some companies' quotes, primarily due to preemptive demand and rising production costs from silver prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The overall trading atmosphere in the market is subdued, with new orders being scarce and transactions mainly consisting of tentative deals [1]. - The current market deadlock is attributed to two main factors: the preemptive demand for photovoltaic products and the reluctance of downstream silicon wafer companies to increase production rates [1][2]. - The average transaction price for n-type recycled silicon is reported at 59,200 yuan/ton, while n-type granular silicon is at 55,800 yuan/ton, both remaining stable week-on-week [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Several leading companies are expected to implement production cuts or halts in January, leading to an anticipated average monthly production of polysilicon around 80,000 tons in the first quarter [2]. - Despite the lack of substantial recovery in terminal demand, the significant reduction in supply is gradually leading to a weak balance in supply and demand [2]. - Key variables affecting price trends include changes in downstream operating rates and the sustainability of inventory reduction, with high inventory levels potentially suppressing prices if demand does not recover promptly [2]. Group 3: Price Statistics - The price statistics for domestic solar-grade polysilicon as of January 21, 2026, show the following: - n-type recycled silicon price range: 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, average price: 59,200 yuan/ton [3]. - n-type granular silicon price range: 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, average price: 55,800 yuan/ton [3]. - The prices are based on a weighted average from nine polysilicon production companies, which account for 89.3% of domestic production in Q4 2025 [3][4].