中国人民大学赵锡军：2026年延续更加积极有为的宏观经济政策，力度或更强

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to reach 1401879 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% based on constant prices. Quarterly growth rates are 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4 [1] Policy Measures - The macroeconomic policies have played a crucial role in achieving the economic growth target for 2025, characterized by a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately accommodative monetary policy [1] - Total fiscal expenditure from January to November 2025 is approximately 35 trillion yuan, with general budget expenditure around 24.9 trillion yuan (up 1.4% year-on-year) and fund expenditure about 9.2 trillion yuan (up 13.7% year-on-year). Total fiscal expenditure for the year is expected to exceed 40 trillion yuan [2] - The social financing scale increased by 35.6 trillion yuan, marking an 8.3% year-on-year growth, with combined fiscal and financial support reaching approximately 75 to 80 trillion yuan, providing strong support for macroeconomic stability, employment, income, and social welfare [2] Structural Adjustments - Significant support for structural adjustments and key sectors has been noted, with the top ten fiscal expenditure categories closely related to people's livelihoods. Social security spending leads at over 4 trillion yuan, followed by education at 3.8 trillion yuan and healthcare at 1.9 trillion yuan [2] - Investment in high-tech industries has grown rapidly, outpacing overall investment and economic growth, with fiscal spending in technology reaching 889.2 billion yuan (up 7.9%) [2] Cost Reduction and Efficiency - Macroeconomic policies have been vital in reducing costs and improving efficiency, with export tax rebates reaching 1.9 trillion yuan (up 5.6%) from January to November 2025. The net interest margin for commercial banks has dropped to a historical low of 1.42% [4] - Since 2018, interest rate cuts have occurred over ten times, contributing to cost reduction and efficiency improvements that support macroeconomic stability [4] Focus on Livelihood and Risk Management - Increasing emphasis on livelihood protection within macroeconomic policies has been observed [4] - Risk prevention and expectation management have become increasingly important, with the People's Bank of China introducing structural monetary policy tools to support capital markets, totaling 800 billion yuan, which significantly boosts market confidence [4] - Continued proactive macroeconomic policies are expected to persist into 2026, potentially with even stronger measures [4]