宽松的货币政策预期增强 沪金期货盘面强势难改

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market is experiencing a strong performance, with the main contract rising significantly, indicating increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1]. Market Developments - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the trading limits and margin requirements for gold futures contracts starting January 22, 2026, which may impact trading strategies and market dynamics [2]. - The Polish central bank has approved a plan to purchase up to 150 tons of gold, increasing the country's reserves to 700 tons, reflecting a trend of central banks accumulating gold [2]. - Bridgewater Associates' founder Ray Dalio warned that Trump's policies could lead to a "capital war," driving investors towards gold as a hedge against declining confidence in U.S. assets due to trade tensions and rising deficits [2]. Institutional Perspectives - New Century Futures noted that heightened geopolitical risks and concerns over international trade, particularly related to Trump's tariffs on Greenland, are increasing demand for gold as a safe haven. Expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year further support gold prices [4]. - Guotai Junan Futures highlighted the focus on the Greenland situation, with Denmark's pension fund withdrawing from U.S. Treasury markets, suggesting that challenges to global order may weaken confidence in dollar assets, maintaining a bullish outlook on precious metals [4].