下游装置控产现象仍存 合成橡胶期货短期有望企稳

Market Overview - On January 21, synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile upward trend, with the main contract rising significantly by 2.86% to 11,850.0 yuan/ton [1] - In the Shanghai market, high-grade polybutadiene rubber prices increased by 100-150 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, indicating a tentative rise in pricing [1] - As of January 20, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease in the inventory of butadiene rubber futures to 24,330 tons, down by 1,700 tons from the previous trading day [1] Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures noted a decline in butadiene production, with upstream profits expanding. Although polybutadiene production remains high, weak spot prices are compressing profits. Rising overseas butadiene prices provide some support for polybutadiene rubber prices. The market is expected to remain volatile under pressure, with a potential stabilization in the short term, but external macro risks such as tariffs should be monitored [3] - Ruida Futures highlighted that domestic polybutadiene production facilities have seen minimal shutdowns, maintaining high supply levels. Strong demand for butadiene and rumors of export transactions have significantly increased production costs. However, downstream resistance to high prices has led to notable discrepancies in negotiations. Both production and trade inventories have increased, and while production profits are under pressure, there are no signs of supply reductions. The operating rate of domestic tire manufacturers has improved significantly week-on-week, with expectations for stable production schedules [3]