产端库存小幅下降 预计短期焦煤下行空间有限

Group 1 - The online auction for coking coal by Mongolia's ETT company on January 21 resulted in all 64,000 tons being sold at a price of $126.3 per ton, with a starting price of $111.3 per ton, excluding taxes [1] - In December 2025, China's coal (excluding lignite) imports reached 58.5971 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 33.01% and a year-on-year increase of 11.78%, with an import value of $4.573 billion, up 42.58% month-on-month but down 0.52% year-on-year [1] - The total coal imports for China in 2025 were 490.4906 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.65%, with a total import value of $36.192 billion, down 30.55% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Huatai Futures noted that the high level of Mongolian coal imports and the recovery of domestic coal production have led to sufficient supply of coking coal, which has weakened price support for coke [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures reported a slight increase in total coking coal inventory and a small decrease in production-side inventory, indicating market winter storage actions, while observing that steel profits remain average, contributing to price pressure on raw materials [4] - The market is expected to experience weak fluctuations in coking coal prices due to high total inventory and strong Mongolian coal import data, despite some expectations regarding coal-related policies [4]