为推进中国式现代化注入持久“人口动能”

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of China's large population in driving economic and social development, highlighting the need to recognize and leverage demographic trends for sustainable modernization [1][2]. Population Size and Characteristics - China's population remains over 1.4 billion in 2025, with a GDP growth rate of 5%, maintaining its position as the world's second-largest economy [2]. - The labor force aged 16-59 is projected to exceed 850 million in 2025, accounting for over 60% of the total population, indicating a substantial labor resource pool [2]. - The elderly population (aged 60 and above) is expected to reach 323 million by 2025, making up 23% of the total population, reflecting a deepening aging society [3]. Demographic Trends - The trend of declining birth rates aligns with global patterns of demographic transition, where economic development leads to lower birth and death rates [4]. - China's aging population is a result of improved living standards and healthcare, with a notable correlation between economic development and population aging [5][6]. - Regional population changes reflect urbanization trends, with significant migration from rural to urban areas, enhancing economic activity in major city clusters [6][7]. Population Dividend - The article discusses the ongoing population dividend, characterized by quantity, quality, structure, and allocation advantages [8]. - Quantity and structural population dividends remain significant, despite a trend towards population reduction, with existing labor resources still substantial [8]. - Quality population dividends are emerging, driven by improvements in health and education, with average education years for the labor force projected to reach 11.3 years by 2025 [9]. - Allocation population dividends are expected to increase as labor mobility enhances the optimization of resource distribution across regions and industries [10].