My Top 5 Predictions for Palantir in 2026

Core Insights - Palantir is expected to maintain strong financial performance in 2026, driven by a robust revenue base, expanding profit margins, record bookings, and growth in its artificial intelligence platform [1] Group 1: Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) - AIP is positioned as an operational layer for enterprise AI deployments, facilitating interactions with large language models and enabling AI-driven automations [4] - The operational AI positioning is anticipated to lead to higher deal volumes and larger deal sizes, with 204 deals over $1 million closed in Q3 2025, including 53 deals over $10 million [5] - As AIP becomes integrated into organizational infrastructure, it is expected to create a more loyal client base and additional expansion opportunities [6] Group 2: U.S. Commercial Growth - U.S. commercial revenues increased by 121% year over year to $397 million in Q3, with AIP playing a significant role in customer expansion [7] - The U.S. commercial segment is projected to be a key growth driver in 2026, although growth rates may moderate over time [8] - The company's go-to-market strategy, which includes "bootcamps," has shortened the commercial sales cycle, positioning revenues to grow faster than government revenues [9] Group 3: Government Contracts - Although government business growth may be slower, it is expected to provide long-duration, high-visibility revenues in 2026, driven by increased adoption of software-based systems [10] - The shift towards full implementations from pilot projects is likely to result in larger, longer-term contracts, with government revenues expected to grow by 51% year over year in 2026 [11] Group 4: Profit Margins - Palantir reported an adjusted operating margin of 51% and a Rule of 40 score of 114% in Q3, with revenue growth of 63% year over year and only a 10% increase in headcount [12] - The AI-powered Forward Deployed Engineer (AI-FDE) has significantly enhanced productivity, allowing the company to sustain operating margins in the mid-40% to low-50% range in 2026 [13] Group 5: Valuation and Stock Volatility - Palantir's stock is currently trading at 174 times forward earnings, indicating a high valuation that may lead to volatility [14] - The company has projected a 61% year-over-year revenue growth to approximately $1.33 billion in Q4 and 53% growth to around $4.4 billion in fiscal 2025, but the high valuation could expose the stock to sharp corrections [15]