丙烯市场供应充裕价格难涨

Group 1 - The global propylene market is expected to face weak demand, low prices, and high inventory pressures from 2025 to 2026, with a common issue of oversupply affecting various regions [1] - In Europe, propylene imports reached 1.46 million tons from January to September 2025, a 9% increase compared to the same period in 2024, which is expected to weaken local propylene consumption [1] - The price of polymer-grade propylene in Europe dropped significantly to €622.50 per ton by December 23, 2025, down from €781.50 per ton in early July [1] Group 2 - In North America, propylene inventory reached a historical high of 101.8 million barrels in the first week of December 2025, a 15.58% increase from 93.1 million barrels in the same period of 2024 [1] - The average variable profit for the propane dehydrogenation (PDH) industry in the U.S. fell to $122 per ton in December 2025, down from $254 per ton in the first eleven months of the year [2] - Despite market pressures, some companies maintain a positive outlook on propylene production, with a high operating rate of over 90% for two PDH units, although this has contributed to low propylene prices [2] Group 3 - The Asian propylene market is experiencing similar challenges, with prices declining due to weak downstream product profits and low polypropylene demand [2] - A Korean supplier indicated that the Asian propylene market lacks recovery momentum, with supply pressure from propane dehydrogenation units being significant [3] - The current situation suggests that any supply gap would quickly lead to the restart of idled propane dehydrogenation units, limiting the potential for price recovery in the propylene market [3]