Nightview Capital 2025 Annual Letter

Core Insights - The Nightview Fund ETF (NITE) achieved a gain of 22.56% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's total return of 17.88% [7] - The fund's strategy focuses on a 20-stock "best ideas" portfolio aimed at long-term investment opportunities rather than following specific trends [8] - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has created both opportunities and risks, with AI startups capturing 50% of all venture capital in 2025, a 37% increase from the previous year [13] Investment Strategy - The fund is bullish on AI as a transformative force in the global economy, believing it will lead to significant infrastructure changes [12] - The investment approach is barbelled, balancing exposure to technological advances with investments in sectors rooted in human experiences, such as travel and entertainment [38] - The fund has invested in Alibaba, recognizing its strong position in China's economy despite negative market sentiment [34] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift, with high-performance computing now accounting for approximately 60% of quarterly revenue for companies like TSMC, up from 30% in 2018 [44] - AI's integration into physical systems is expected to create competitive advantages for companies that can leverage real-world data and learning [22] - Tesla is highlighted as a key player in the transition to AI-driven autonomy, with significant improvements in its Full Self-Driving technology [25][27] Market Conditions - The current market environment presents a widening opportunity set, with some companies realizing efficiency gains from AI while others remain undervalued [33] - As interest rates stabilize, there are signs of recovery in deal-making and trading volumes across financial services [37] - The historical context of past technology cycles suggests that while excesses may emerge, the demand for AI-driven infrastructure is likely to remain strong [49][50]