需求端仍处季节性淡季 不锈钢短期高位震荡运行

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals shows a predominantly bearish trend, with stainless steel futures experiencing fluctuations, opening at 14,410.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 14,895.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.16% [1] Group 2 - The stainless steel market is currently exhibiting a volatile upward trend, with strong performance observed in the trading session. However, institutions express concerns about future price movements due to various factors [2] - Guangzhou Futures indicates that the Indonesian nickel ore policy is expected to significantly raise nickel-iron costs, while demand for stainless steel remains weak. The price is anticipated to fluctuate within a range of 13,600 to 14,600 CNY/ton, with caution advised regarding potential pullbacks due to waning bullish sentiment or policy outcomes falling short of expectations [2] - Guotai Futures notes that the rebound in raw material prices and increased production from steel mills are leading to a gradual reduction in inventory, suggesting that stainless steel will continue to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term [2] - Qisheng Futures highlights that the cost side is notably supported by rising nickel-iron and ore prices, particularly with expectations of significant increases in Indonesian domestic ore prices. While there may be a slight recovery in production in January, overall growth is expected to be limited due to seasonal demand weakness [2] - Current social inventory levels have not shown significant accumulation, but there is still pressure for increases in the off-season, while low warehouse receipts provide some market support. The overall judgment is that stainless steel prices will primarily operate in a range-bound manner, with a focus on monitoring Indonesian policy developments and changes in demand [2]