从蜜雪冰城到鸣鸣很忙，中国县城为何走出一个又一个成功的新消费？

Core Insights - The central economic work conference in December 2025 will prioritize boosting consumption as a key macro policy, highlighting its importance in China's economic strategy [2] - The report by Black Ant Capital focuses on the county-level economy, which is crucial for understanding the future of consumption in China, emphasizing the need for in-depth field research [2][3] Group 1: County Market Dynamics - The county market represents about one-third of China's population (450 million people) and GDP (33%), making it a significant area for consumption growth [3] - The county economy exhibits stronger consumption resilience compared to first-tier cities, with unique challenges such as "scale inefficiency" [3][4] - The rise of brands like Mixue Ice Cream and Mingming Busy from lower-tier markets indicates the potential of county economies in shaping future consumption trends [3][4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - From 2022 to 2025, county residents have become more cautious in their spending, particularly on non-essential items, reflecting a shift from identity-driven consumption to practical and emotional needs [13][24] - The demand for identity symbols has decreased, with consumers prioritizing practical value and emotional connections in their purchasing decisions [24][28] - There is a notable increase in the importance of "gaining knowledge" as a consumer need, indicating a shift towards valuing experiences and personal growth [24][28] Group 3: Spending Patterns - County households are experiencing stable income levels, yet they are actively reducing discretionary spending, particularly on clothing and identity-related items [13][50] - Essential expenditures such as education and healthcare remain a priority, while personal discretionary spending is being redirected towards experiences that provide immediate satisfaction and long-term health benefits [35][37] - The trend indicates a transformation in spending from acquiring more goods to enhancing quality of life and emotional well-being [35][50] Group 4: Channel Evolution - There is a growing preference for high-value, convenient shopping channels in county markets, with a decline in traditional retail and an increase in modern formats like discount stores [45][48] - The rise of interest-driven e-commerce and local life platforms reflects changing consumer habits, aligning more closely with trends seen in higher-tier cities [45][48] Group 5: Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous research on county-level consumer behavior to identify emerging trends and investment opportunities [10][12] - The evolving landscape of consumer expectations and spending habits in county markets will be critical for brands aiming to penetrate these areas effectively [11][12]