行业继续累库 烧碱期价延续低位运行态势

Market Overview - The main contract for caustic soda futures closed at 1939.0 CNY/ton, experiencing a decline of 2.02% [1] - As of January 20, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 224,200 long positions and 254,900 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.88. The net position increased by 2,131 contracts to -30,700 contracts compared to the previous day [1] Production and Supply - Last week, the production of caustic soda from sample enterprises with a capacity of 20,000 tons or more was approximately 853,000 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.47% and a year-on-year increase of 4.28% [1] - A 170,000-ton facility in East China experienced a short shutdown, while a 650,000-ton facility in East China and a 300,000-ton facility in South China resumed operations, leading to a slight increase in caustic soda production capacity utilization, which remains at a high operating level [1] Industry Sentiment - According to Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures, the market is under pressure from high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, making short-term improvements unlikely. Caustic soda prices are expected to continue operating at low levels, with resistance around 2130-2150 CNY/ton and support to be monitored around 1900-2000 CNY/ton [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that the caustic soda market continues to exhibit a weak trend, with ongoing inventory accumulation and significant inventory pressure. A large alumina enterprise in Shandong reduced the price of liquid caustic soda by 15 CNY to 615 CNY. The price of liquid chlorine remains firm at around 300 CNY, maintaining acceptable integrated profits, while caustic soda production remains high. Although downstream alumina operations are at high levels, the industry is generally experiencing losses, and future production cuts need to be monitored [3]